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« The challenge of the century, that of climate change, should help France move towards full employment »

Tribune. With the exception of a brief and recent presidential incise, full employment is the great forgotten of the presidential campaign, no candidate committing to his return, even in the long term, as if current unemployment were inevitable. insurmountable! The candidates are content at best to mention the creation of jobs, preferably green.

It is a strange renunciation of the right to the left, while unemployment, especially long term, is always a factor of poverty and destruction of social cohesion. In addition, many advanced countries, like Germany, experience full employment or a much lower unemployment rate.

It is true that, for forty years, the unemployment rate has almost always been above 8%, too often around 10%. However, since 2017, the decline in unemployment has started and is a factor of optimism that the health crisis has not reversed, with currently an unemployment rate of around 8%, almost that of 2019.

Read also Article reserved for our subscribers With the recovery, the new horizon of full employment

We affirm, with modeling support, that reaching full employment is possible in two five-year terms, with a gradual and continuous reduction in unemployment over the next few years. According to our calculations, this is possible on condition that six “distributions” evolve significantly.

A new growth model

About 2 million jobs must be created if we want to achieve the objective of an unemployment rate of 4%, recognized as reflecting full employment. The real question is then that of the conditions to achieve this objective.

To this end, we have rethought economic growth as a permanent interaction between supply, demand and innovation; in other words, we have to reconcile [les économistes] Keynes (1883-1946) and Schumpeter (1883-1950) through policies oriented at the same time on these three components. The outcome is a new growth model which has enabled us to determine precise conditions for achieving full employment.

We must gradually transfer around 4 points of gross domestic product (GDP) from profits to wages. This corresponds to around 100 billion euros at the end of the trajectory

The desired macroeconomic trajectory is based on efforts shared between the different social strata and generations, and of course adapted to their income and wealth. Also, we consider that six major distributions must radically evolve.

The first distribution, that of income between wages and profits, is obviously of great importance, given its excessive distortion in favor of profits for several decades. Our growth model shows that we must gradually transfer around 4 points of gross domestic product (GDP) from profits to wages. This corresponds to around 100 billion euros at the end of the trajectory.

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